联合条件下风力发电风速预测

The short-term wind speeds prediction under the condition of probability distribution

风速性质直接影响风力发电的功率,确定性预测在很多方面无法满足当前需要,而概率性预测比较符合实际,具有更强的实用性.采用以当前时段实测风速和下一时段预报风速为联合条件的离散预报误差概率统计模型(forecast error probability distribution,FEPD),从而预测短时(功率预测前几小时)风速,通过得到风速数据,在短时时段覆盖内,就能够预测风力发电的功率.实例证明,以风速为基础从而预测风力发电功率是一种有效的方法.

Abstract=The power of wind energy is directly influenced by the properties of wind speeds. Compared with the deterministic prediction, which can＇t meet the current demand in many aspects, probabilistic forecasting is practical and of strong practicability. In order to forecast the short-term （a few hours be- fore power prediction） wind speeds, the paper employs discrete FEPD based on the joint condition which contains the real-time wind speed and predicted following wind speed. According to the wind speeds data obtained,the power of wind energy within a short period of time can be predicted, h＇s a kind of effective method to forecast the wind energy power based on the speed of the wind.