广西经济增长与能源消费关系的协整分析与检验——基于1978—2010年的数据

Co-integration Analysis and Granger Causality Test on the Relationship Between Guangxi Economic Growth and Energy Consumption——Data from 1978 to 2010

以广西1978—2010年为样本区间的统计数据,利用协整检验与格兰杰因果检验方法,建立了回归模型对广西经济增长与能源消费之间的关系进行了实证研究。研究结果表明,在样本区间内,广西经济增长不是能源消费的格兰杰原因,能源消费是中国经济增长的格兰杰原因。最后通过分析比较结果,提出相关的政策建议。

Based on the statistics collected during the sampling period from 1978 to 2010, the paper adopts the methods of causality testing put forth by Granger and the cointegration testing. Setting up a regression model, it empirically analyzes the relationship between GDP and ECP in Guangxi. The result shows that the economic growth in Guangxi, during the sampling period of time, is not a Granger cause of ECP, but a Granger cause of the economic growth in Guangxi. Finally, according to the result of the comparison analysis, this paper provides relevant policy suggestions.