基于EMD-AR算法的风电场功率短期预测

Short Term Load Prediction of Wind Farm Power Based on EMD-AR Algorithm

针对风电场功率的随机性和间歇性,采用经验模式分解(EMD)的方法对风功率进行平稳化处理。将风功率自适应地分解成一系列较平稳的分量再进行建模预测,提出了EMD-AR预测模型用来改善AR模型的性能,并进一步提高风电场功率预测的精度。

In the light of the random and intermittent characteristics of wind iarm power, the paper uses empirical mode decomposition （EMD） method to make smooth processing of the power, adaptively decomposes the power into a series of relatively stable component for modeling and forecasting, and applies EMD-AR prediction model to improve the performance of AR model and the precision of prediction of the wind farm power.