基于实物期权理论对BOT项目经济可行性的研究

Financial Flexibility Study of a BOT Project Based on a Real Option Model

针对BOT(建设-运营-移交)项目所具有的动态管理、投资成本及未来运营收益不确定性、政府保证和项目破产等特性,结合实物期权理论,利用美式期权定价的方法和蒙特卡洛模拟对基础设施BOT项目进行经济可行性研究.运用该方法对案例项目进行分析表明:该方法能够更加准确的评价一个项目的经济可行性,有助于投资者评估BOT项目投资价值.

Due to the characteristics of BOT projects,it is a challenge to determine their Financial Flexibilities.However,Discount Cash Flow（DCF）,as a traditional and usual method to pre-determine a project,cannot fully capture the features of BOT projects.In this paper,based on the major uncertainties inherent in BOT projects including dynamic managing,fluctuating future incomes,and government guarantees and bankruptcy,a real option theory was applied to the financial viability determination.In the study,a BOT project is more likely an American option,and with the Monte Carlo Simulation,this method shows a more accurate result.