中国OFDI与国内经济环境的关系研究——基于VAR方法的实证分析

Research on Relationship between Chinese OFDI and Domestic Economic Environ ment-Based on VAR Model

本文从母国层面研究对外直接投资(OFDI)的影响因素,通过对相关文献的归纳整理,发现对OFDI产生影响的母国宏观经济因素可以概括为三类:民生状况、金融状况、贸易状况。随后,选用1991～2010年中国对外直接投资相关数据,通过建立VAR模型检验GDP增长率、金融相关比、出口额及FDI流入等宏观经济指标与中国OFDI的关系。结果显示,从长期来看我国出口贸易额及金融相关比对我国对外直接投资有重要影响,出口增长和金融规模扩张促进了我国的对外直接投资发展。

This paper launches a research on effective elements of outward foreign direct investment from aspect of home-country. It used VAR model to testify the relationship between OFDI and series of home-country economic environment indices such as GDP growth rate, FIR, export volume and FDI inflows. The conclusion is that in a long term China＇s export volume and FIR have positive influence on China＇s OFDI, and both play an important role.