气候变化背景下上海市温度热效应死亡风险预估

Projection of heat-related mortality impacts under climate change scenarios in Shanghai

目的预估气候变化背景下上海市未来中期及远期温度热效应人群死亡风险。方法应用统计降尺度技术，模拟温室气体排放情景下上海市未来中期与远期逐日日均温，并基于已发表的上海市温度一死亡暴露一反应关系，预估碳排放相对高速增长模式（A2）和碳排放相对低速增长模式（B2）情景下上海市未来中期与远期温度热效应人群死亡风险。使用1961--1990年的数据用于模型的构建，1991--2001年的数据用于模型验证，对2030--2059、2070--2099年逐日日均温进行模拟并进行未来温度热效应死亡风险预估。数据来源为美国国家气候数据中心（NCDC）、降尺度模型（SDSM）网站的美国国家环境预报中心（NCEP）再分析数据和SDSM网站的HadCM3数据。结果温度预估模型的解释方差为98．1％，标准误差为1．24℃，用于模型验证的上海市站点1991—2001年日均温观测与模拟序列趋势线庠值为0．978，表明模型模拟序列与实际观测序列拟合较好。在A2情景下，预估上海市2030--2059、2070--2099年日均温均值分别为17．9、20．4℃，比基线时间段（16．8℃）分别增加1．1、3．6℃。在B2情景下，预估上海市2030--2059、2070--2099年日均温均值分别为17．8、19．1oC，比基线时间段（16．8℃）增加1．0、2．3℃。A2情景下，上海市2030--2059年、2070—2099年热相关死亡人数的年均值分别为516、1191例，分别比基线时间段（336例）增加53．6％、254．5％。B2情景下，上海市2030--2059年、2070--2099年热相关死亡人数的年均值分别为498、831例，分别比基线时问段（336例）增加48．2％、147．6％。结论气候变化背景下，未来上海市温度热效应人群死亡风险增加，未来远期的死亡风险增加幅度高于未来中期。

Objective To project the future impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality in shanghai. Methods The statistical downscaling techniques were applied to simulate the daily mean temperatures of Shanghai in the middle and farther future under the changing climate. Based on the published exposure-reaction relationship of temperature and mortality in Shanghai, we projected the heat-related mortality in the middle and farther future under the circumstance of high speed increase of carbon e mission （A2） and low speed increase of carbon emission （B2）. The data of 1961 to 1990 was used to establish the model, and the data of 1991 -2001 was used to testify the model, and then the daily mean temperature from 2030 to 2059 and from 2070 to 2099 were simulated and the heat-related mortality was projected. The data resources were from U. S. National Climatic Data Center （NCDC） , U. S. National Centers for Environmental Prediction Reanalysis Data in SDSM Website and UK Hadley Centre Coupled Model Data in SDSM Website. Results The explained variance and the standard error of the established model was separately 98. 1% and 1.24 ℃. The R2 value of the simulated trend line equaled to 0. 978 in Shanghai, as testified by the model. Therefore, the temperature prediction model simulated daily mean temperatures well. Under A2 scenario, the daily mean temperature in 2030 -2059 and 2070 -2099 were projected to be 17.9℃ and 20. 4℃, respectively, increasing by 1.1 ℃ and 3.6 ℃ when compared to baseline period （ 16. 8 ℃ ）. Under B2 scenario, the daily mean temperature in 2030 -2059 and 2070 -2099 were projected to be 17.8℃ and 19. 1 ℃ , respectively, increasing by 1.0 ℃ and 2. 3 ℃ when compared to baseline period （16. 8 ℃）. Under A2 scenario, annum average heat-related mortality were projected to be 516 cases and 1191 cases in 2030 - 2059 and 2070 - 2099, respectively, increasing 53.6% and 254. 5% when compared with baseline period （336 cases）. Under B2 scenario, annual average heat-related mortality were projected to be 498 cases and 832 cases in 2030 - 2059 and 2070 - 2099, respectively, increasing 48.2% and 147.6% when compared with baseline period （336 cases）. Conclusion Under the changing climate, heat-related mortality is projected to increase in the future; and the increase will be more obvious in year 2070 -2099 than in year 2030 -2059.