扩展型贸易引力模型视角下中国水产品出口的影响因素与潜力测度

Study on the Factor and Potential of Chinese Aquatic Products Export by Expansible Trade Gravity Model

文章基于我国水产品出口实际,构建了扩展型贸易引力模型,利用2010年我国水产品出口金额靠前的40个贸易伙伴1992-2010年间的面板数据,使用Eviews5.0对我国水产品出口的影响因素进行了多元线性回归分析并测度了其出口潜力。研究结果表明:渔业生产总值、进口国经济规模、进出口国人均收入水平差异、进口国华裔人口数量和APEC贸易制度安排都是影响我国水产品出口的因素,而贸易距离则是最主要的阻碍因素;我国对波兰、葡萄牙、乌克兰、墨西哥等15个国家水产品"过度出口",这些市场均属于贸易潜力衰退型的充分市场;我国对菲律宾、越南、德国、澳大利亚等10个国家水产品"出口饱和",对这些经济体扩大水产品出口的空间较为有限;我国对新加坡、俄罗斯、法国、阿尔及利亚等15个国家水产品"出口不足",应继续拓展对这些经济体的出口规模。

Based on the real status,this article has built up the expansible trade gravity model,used the panel data to analyze the multiple linear regressions of the top 40 countries which have the big trading amount of aquatic products with China from 1992 till 2010 by Eviews 5.0. This article has drawn the conclusion that Chinese fishery product,GDP of importing partners,the per capita income difference, Chinese population of importing partners and APEC are promoting factors while trade distance is the main obstacle factor. We also found that China has exporting too much aquatic products to such 15 countries as Poland,Portugal,Ukraine,and Mexico and those countries are recession markets. The exporting markets of Philippines,Vietnam,Germany,Australia and the other 6 countries are already full enough. But there is still much room to improve Chinese aquatic products ＂export capacity＂ to such countries as Singapore, Russia,France and Algeria.