湖北省油菜种植风险的区划研究

Risk zoning of rapeseed planting in counties of Hubei Province

选取能概括湖北省油菜种植风险的单产减产10%和20%的概率、单产变异系数、专业化指数、效率指数、旱涝保收指数、水利投入指数、温度距平值、旱灾涝灾指数9个指标,使用系统聚类方法,以湖北省各县油菜种植面临的种植风险不相同的实际情况为依据,对湖北省78个县的油菜种植划分出4个风险等级,发现湖北省油菜种植高风险区集中在湖北省西北部及北部地区,较高风险地区集中在湖北西部、西南部、以及西北部和北部部分地区,中等风险的地区集中在江汉平原,低风险区集中在湖北东北部、东南部和西南部分地区。根据研究结果,提出对不同风险地区实行有针对性的油菜生产促进措施,完善湖北省油菜种植生产布局、发展油菜保险、实行差别费率三点建议。

Risk zoning method was used to investigate the oilseed rape production in Hubei Province of China.Totally 9 indices were chosen.They were probability of 10% yield loss,probability of 20% yield loss,coefficient of variability（CV） of yield,specialization index,efficiency index,yield ensuring index under water stress（flood and drought）,water conservancy investment index,temperature anomaly index,and grade of flood and drought index.Rapeseed planting risks encountered by 78 counties of Hubei Province were evaluated by hierarchical clustering method.Results showed that high-risk regions were centered on the north and northwest parts.Higher or mid-high risk regions were in the west,southwest,northwest and north parts;medium-risk regions were in the Jianghan Plain,low-risk regions were on the northeast,southeast and southwest parts.According to the evaluation results,3 suggestions were made for rapeseed production：to take responsible measures in different risking areas,to improve distribution of rapeseed plantation,and to develope rapeseed planting insurance using different rates.