中国省际全要素CO_2排放效率差异及驱动因素——基于1995—2010年的实证研究

Total Factor Efficiency Differences of CO_2 Emissions and Driving Factors in China’s Inter-provincial——Based on the 1995—2010 Years of Empirical Research

本文以1995—2010年我国30个省级经济单元为研究对象,在全要素框架下基于非参数数据包络分析法实证测算了各省份的CO2排放效率,运用核密度估计研究了CO2排放效率的动态演进特征,并分析了CO2排放效率变动的驱动因素。结论表明,我国各省份CO2排放效率差异显著,CO2排放效率最高的五个省份依次为上海、广东、海南、福建、湖南;CO2排放效率最低的五个省份依次为青海、贵州、宁夏、新疆、陕西。分地区看,东部地区CO2排放效率最高,依次为东北综合经济区、中部和西部地区。核密度分析结果表明,我国整体CO2排放效率提高过程中省际之间的差距有进一步拉大的趋势,省际之间累积CO2排放效率经历了由"双峰"→"单峰"→"双峰"→"单峰"的交替演进,这一结果和国家宏观环境政策的变化紧密相关。第三产业所占比重、政府影响力和公众环保意识的增强能够促进CO2排放效率的改进;重工业所占比重、国有及国有控股工业所占比重、煤炭消费所占比重和进出口贸易所占比重增加将不利于CO2排放效率的提高,据此提出了提高CO2排放效率的对策建议。

This paper as China＇s 30 provincial-level economic unit for the study,Empirical estimates of CO2 emissions efficiency of the various provinces,Based on non-parametric data envelopment analysis In the framework of total factor,analysis the dynamic evolution of the characteristics of the CO2 emissions efficiency use kernel density estimation.,and to study the drivers of changes in CO2 emissions efficiency.The conclusions show that CO2 emissions efficiency of the various provinces were significantly different,The five provinces with the highest CO2 emissions efficiency for Shanghai,Guangdong,Hainan,Fujian,Hunan;The five provinces with the lowest CO2 emissions efficiency Qinghai,Guizhou,Ningxia,Xinjiang,Shaanxi.The highest efficiency of CO2 emissions in the eastern region,followed by the Northeast Economic Zone,central and western regions.kernel density analysis showed that the China＇s overall CO2 emissions efficiency of the gap between the inter-provincial process a further widening trend.Cumulative CO2 emissions efficiency in inter-provincial experience alternating evolution of the ＂Twin Peaks＂ → ＂single peak＂ → ＂Twin Peaks＂ → ＂single peak＂,This result and the state macro-environment policy changes are closely related.Tertiary industry the proportion,Government influence and public awareness of environmental protection can improvement of the efficiency of CO2 emissions;Increase in heavy industry and proportion of state-owned and state holding industrial,Increase the proportion of coal consumption and proportion of import and export trade will not be conducive to the improvement of the efficiency of CO2 emissions,Put forward suggestions to improve the efficiency of the CO2emissions.