县级电网实用负荷预测方法研究

A Study on the Load Forecasting Method for the County-level Grid

提出一种根据负荷性质采用相应的预测方法。以某县为算例,根据弹性系数法,从全局、分区和分产业用电量三种负荷预测的方法中,选定最切合当地负荷发展情况的预测结果作为电网规划的依据,实验证明,该方法优于传统的人工统计预测法。

This essay introduces a load forecasting method based on the nature of the load. Taking a county for exam- ple, on the basis of the elastic coefficient method, the forecasting result in accordance with the local load develop- ment has been chosen from three forecasting results to serve as the foundation for grid planning. The results were gained in three load forecasting methods used to forecast the overall electricity consumption, the divisional electricity consumption and the electricity consumption in different industries. Relevant experiments have proved that the load forecasting method is superior to traditional manual statistical forecasting method.