基于灰色关联分析的新疆棉花产量气象影响因素研究

Meteorological Factors Influencing Cotton Yield in Xinjiang Based on Gray Conjunction Analysis

整理了新疆境内2000—2009年的棉花单产、年降水量、年平均相对湿度、年日照时数以及年平均气温等统计数据,对各因素变化趋势及相关性进行了分析,并应用灰色关联分析方法研究各个气象因素对棉花产量的影响程度。结果表明,年日照时数与棉花单产之间相关性最好,对棉花产量贡献最大,基于日照时数建立的棉花产量预测模型具有良好精度。

The factors were collected including cotton yield per unit area, annual amount of precipitation, annual average relative humidity, annual sunshine hours and annual mean temperature during the decade from 2000 to 2009 in Xinjiang. Teh changing trends of all factors were analysed, and correlations among factors were researched. The conjunctions to cotton yield of all meteorological factors were obtained by gray conjunction analysis. The reseatch results showed, the correlation was the best between annual sunshine hours and cotton yield per unit area, and the annual sunshine hours contributes most to cotoon yield. Then the prediciton model of cotton yield was obtained with good accuracy.