焉耆盆地1951—2010年冬季气温变化及其对农业的影响

Temperature Characteristics in Winter at Yanqi Basin during 1951-2010 and Its Effects on Agricultural Production

利用焉耆气象站近1951—2010年逐日气象资料,分析了焉耆盆地冬季平均气温、极端最低气温、低温日数、入冬期、冬季持续日数和冷积温变化特征,探讨了冬季气温变化对农业生产的影响。结果表明:焉耆盆地冬季平均气温和最低气温显著上升,低温日数与冷积温显著减少,入冬期偏晚,冬季持续日数减少;冬季气温在1980年发生突变,存在27 a和9 a的周期变化,强冷冬年主要出现在20世纪50—70年代,暖冬年大多集中在20世纪90年代后。冬季气温变暖有利于设施农业生产和冬小麦安全越冬,不利于病虫害防治,但阶段性低温使林果低温冻害频繁发生。

Based on the daily meteorological data during 1951-2010 from Yanqi weather station, the change characteristics of average temperture, the minimum temperature, the cold days, beginning date of winter, winter durative days and cold accumulated temperature as well as the influence on agriculture in winter in the Yanqi Basin area were analyzed. The results showed that the average temperature and the minimum temperature increased remarkablely. The cold days and cold accumulated temperature significantly reduced. Beginning date of winter became late. The cold days decreased. The average temperture indicated a break in 1980 and there were 27a and 9a cycle change. The strong cold winter occurred during the time from 1950s to 1970s. The warm winter appeared since 1990s. The increasing temperture in winter was in favor of establishment of agriculture and winter wheat living, but it was easy to cause shortly low-temperature damage in fruit and increased the difficulty to prevent plant diseases and insect pests.