Lislie人口增长模型在韶关市人口老龄化趋势预测中的应用

The Application of Lislie Population Growth Model on Population Aging Trend Prediction of Shaoguan City

利用Lislie人口增长模型对韶关地区人口进行预测。首先求出模型中的各个参数值,再把参数值代入模型得到预测年份的人口总数、人口结构、老龄化系数和抚养比,并对模型进行了评价。最后针对将来可能面临的问题给出了建议。

Uses the Lislie population growth model to forecast the population in Shaoguan area. Firstly, determines parameter values of the model; Secondly, puts the parameter values into the model to get the population forecasting values, population structure, aging coefficient as well as dependency ratio, and evaluates the model; Finally gives policy sugges- tion on the future population aging problems in Shaoguan City.