一种利用冲突系数确定信任权重的证据合成方法

Modification of Combination Rule of Evidence Theory on the Foundermental of Weight Factors of Trust

D—S理论是一种经典的不确定性推理方法，它通过有效整合多数据源的信息，进行最优的推理判断。但这种证据合成方法的有效性是建立在对不同证据源的同等信任基础之上的，当各证据源冲突较大或完全冲突时，该方法得出的结论往往有悖常理。文章考虑到来自不同证据源的信息可信任度不一样，提出了一种利用冲突系数确定证据源信任权重的证据合成方法，该方法提高了证据采纳的可靠性和合理性，使得对冲突证据的合成更为理想。

Dempster Shafer theory is an classical method for dealing with uncertainty problems. It can combine evidences from different sources and therefore it has been successfully applied in many domains. However, the D - S evidence combination method may be useless when the conflict among evidences is rather great or even complete. According to the disparity of the reliability of the evidences, the paper is concerned with a new evidence combination method with introducing weight fac- tors of trust and calculating the conflicted probability. This method improves the rationality and reliability of the evidence combination and better results can be acquired.