基于交通保障的城市突发事件分级

Classification of Urban Emergency Based on Traffic Guarantee

合理划分突发事件等级,是应急管理人员迅速、科学调度资源和人员的基础依据,是预案编制的首要前提,也是突发事件应急管理的关键技术.已有的突发事件分级研究重点是事后分级,没有考虑事件发生时的交通保障能力,这会导致分级出现偏差,对应急处置意义不大.此外,大部分研究都是定性的.本文提出了突发事件中分级的定量模型.考虑应急救援的交通保障能力,从突发事件性质,突发事件对社会的影响,以及交通保障能力三个方面提出了突发事件分级的评价指标,接着用模糊层次分析法计算各因素的优先权重,最后以火灾为例验证了提出的模型.

Emergency classification serves as the basis of the reasonable allocation of supplies and rescuers. It is also the important premise of making pre-plan and the key technology of emergeney management. The emergency classifications in previous studies are always conducted after the accident without considering the traffic guarantee during the accident. This reduces the accuracy of classification and plays minor role in emergency management. Moreover, most of these studies are qualitative. In this paper, a quantitative model of emergency classification during the accident is proposed. Considering the traffic guarantee of emergency rescue, the influencing factors of emergency classification are presented from three aspects ： characteristics of emergency, impact on society and capable of traffic guarantee. The local weight of factors and sub-factors are determined using the fuzzy analytic hierarchical process. Then the proposed method is applied in a real fire.