海洋工程设计波高的区间估计方法初探

Interval Estimation Methods of Wave Height for Ocean Engineering Design

研究了极大似然法求解N年一遇极值波高区间估计的一般步骤,在年极值波高服从广义极值分布、Gumbel分布、Weibull分布、对数正态分布或皮尔逊III型分布时,给出了N年一遇极值波高区间估计的具体表达式;作为比较,提出了一种区间估计的非参数方法。利用广西涠洲岛海洋站年最大波高数据进行了广义极值分布数据拟合,利用极大似然法求解其置信区间,并与文献中的点估计结果进行了比较。

This paper researches on the general procedures of interval estimation for N-year return wave height by using maximum likelihood method, and presents the detailed formula of confidence intervals when the annual extreme wave height follows generalized extreme value distribution, Gumbel distribution, Weibull distribution, Lognormal distribution or Pearson type 3 distribution. Then for comparison, a nonparametric method of interval estimation is also proposed. Finally, an example verification is conducted based on the above methods which are proved to be effective.