近60年新疆库尔勒市的气候变化特点分析

Analysis of climate change of Korla, Xinjiang in recent 60 years

根据库尔勒市气象局和研究区安装的自动气象站的气象资料,采用滑动平均、距平分析、线性回归等方法,分析库尔勒市近60年的气候变化的基本特征,结果表明:(1)库尔勒市平均温度有4暖3冷的冷暖变化阶段,该地区平均气温呈上升趋势,特别是20世纪90年代以后气温明显增加;近10年的气温变化较大,比前50年的平均值上升了1℃;平均气温存在着明显的线性升温趋势。(2)库尔勒市年降水量变化趋势不是很明显,有2多4少的干湿变化阶段。近10年的降水量与前50年的降水量相比较偏少了2.4 mm;年降水量不存在明显的线性变化趋势。(3)库尔勒市平均极端最高最低气温呈上升趋势,60年来该地区最高气温上升率与南疆最高气温上升率一致。近10年的极端最高最低气温与前50年的分别上升0.36℃和1.2℃,最低气温的上升对年平均气温的升高贡献最大。(4)通过比较库尔勒市气象站提供的气象数据和自动气象站提供的数据可以看出,该区域一定程度上受到城市热岛效应和人为干扰,因此需要在城市周边的某些地区安装气象仪器,以提高气象数据的精确性。

According to meteorological data from Korla weather bureau and the automatic weather stations, using moving average method, temperature departure analysis, linear regression method that analyzed main features of climate change in recent 60 years in Korla, and the results show that： （1）Korta annual average temperature has 4 warm 3 cold periods in temperature change stage and the average temperature in the region is increasing, especially after 90 s, temperature increased significantly. In recent 10 years the temperature changes greatly and it rose 1℃ on average than it did in the last 50 years. The average temperature has the obvious linear upward trend. （2） The annual precipitation change trend is not very obvious, it has 2 relatively humid and 4 relatively dry periods, compared to last 50 years the rainfall decreased by 2.4 mm in recent 10 years. （3） The extreme highest temperature and minimum temperature on average is rising and the rate of extreme highest temperature in 60 years of this area is in accordance with the rate of highest temperature in Southern Xinjiang. Compare to last 50 years the extreme highest temperatutre and minimum temperature in recent 10 years has risen by 0.36 ℃ and 1.2 ℃ respectively. The increase in minimum temperature has greater contribution to the average temperature increase. （4）Through the comparison of Korla weather bureau and our automatic weather stations＇s meteorological data, it can be seen that this area is affected by Urban heat island effect and human interference, there for the suburbs in the area needs installation of more meteorological instruments to improve the accuracy of meteorological data.