财政风险的衡量标准及其测算

The Measuring Standards and Calculation of Financial Risks

赤字是衡量财政风险的简单、可衡量指标,但转轨国家往往通过隐性债务来转移财政支出压力,真实赤字应该包括隐性债务赤字.从赤字融资方式解释,财政赤字率、隐性债务赤字率和政府收入赤字率等三种口径赤字率有着严密的逻辑关系.其中,政府收入赤字率包括财政赤字率和隐性债务赤字率.1980年以来我国财政赤字率都在3%之内,但政府收入赤字率围绕10%波动.控制隐性债务是防范化解财政风险的根本举措.

Deficit is a simple and measurable indicator to express financial risk. But some economical transforming countries usually transfer their expenditure pressure by recessive debts, which should a part of the real decifit. Explained by deficit financing, there exist strict logical relation among the rate of financial deficit, recessive defi- cit rate and the deficit rate of government revenue and the deficit rate of government revenue covers the other two. From 1980, our country＇ s rate of financial deficit has been controlled within three percent, wheras the deficit rate of government revenue reaches to about ten percent, so to control recessive debts is the basic way to prevent and solve financial risks.