“分型配料法”在湖北省暴雨预报中的应用研究

APPLICATIONS OF TYPING INGREDIENTS-BASED METHODOLOGY TO HEAVY RAINFALL FORECAST IN HUBEI PROVINCE

通过对"配料法"的学习,认为"配料"不仅仅是诊断因子的组合,还应是预报员主观经验与客观数值产品的有机结合,由此提出了"先分型后配料"的思想,称之为"分型配料法"。由此提出了"先分型后配料"的办法,称之为"分型配料法"。在此研究的基础上,根据湖北省梅雨期和盛夏期的天气型特点,分别制定了不同的暴雨预报配料方案,并通过个例进行具体阐述。结果表明,基于上述研究的"分型配料法"能够较好地做出暴雨落区预报,在汛期气象服务中发挥了积极的指导作用。

By studying the Ingredients-Based Methodology, we realized that this method is not only a combination of diagnosis factors, but also a combination of subjective experience of forecasters and numerical forecast products. Thus, a ＂typing Ingredients-Based Methodology＂ is proposed. Based on the weather characteristics during Meiyu period and midsummer, two different Ingredients-Based Methodologies were developed. Our results show that the Typing Ingredients-Based Methodology can give an accurate prediction of summer heavy rainfall location, and plays an important role in guiding the meteorological service during the high-water season.