我国能源消耗量影响因素分解及趋势分析

Factors Decomposition and Trend Analysis of Energy Consumption in China

运用迪氏对数指标分解法(LMDI)对我国在1997年～2007年的三次产业能耗增长进行研究,将能耗增长因素分解为4个效应:人口效应、经济效应、产业结构效应和产业能源强度效应。结果表明,1997年～2007年我国能耗消费增长主要动因是经济效应,占116.68%,并呈现明显的增长趋势。人口效应和产业结构效应影响较小。产业能源强度的降低是减缓我国能源消耗总量增长的主要因素,并且这种减缓趋势在增强,表明我国能源利用效率在不断提高。从4个因素的发展趋势预测分析得出,在保持人口和经济发展的前提下,需加强产业结构调整,并且继续提高能源利用效率。

The Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index（LMDI） is applied to research the growth of energy consumption in China from 1997 to 2007.The factors of energy consumption growth could be resolved into four effects： population effect,production effect,industrial structure ef fect and industrial energy intensity effect.The results indicate that,the main reason of energy consumption growth in China during 1997 and 2007 is production effect,which accounts for 116.68%,and it presents obvious growth trend.The influence of population effect and industrial structure effect are much smaller.The reduction of industrial energy intensity is the main reason of slowing down the growth of total energy consumption,and the slowing trend is strengthened;the energy efficiency in China is improving continuously.The industrial structure adjust ment should be strengthened,and the energy efficiency should be improved sequentially in premise of keeping the development of population and production by predicting and analyzing the developing trend of these four effects.