混合选举制会形成两党制吗?——基于台湾地区“立法院”选举的分析

Will Mixed-Electoral System lead to a Two-party System? ——Analysis Based on the Congress Elections in Taiwan

选举制度与政党体系之间有着高度的相关性,著名的迪韦尔热定律即持此种观点。多数学者都已证明,单一选区制和议会内两大党制度的形成有高度关联性。那么,混合选举制度会对政党体系带来什么样的影响呢?本文以台湾地区为例,分析混合选举制度改革以来政党体系的变化。由于台湾地区长期实行中选区、单记名不可转让投票制,在政党政治上长期保持一党独大体制。2008年,台湾地区实行了混合选举制改革后的第一次议会选举。混合选举制会导致两党制吗?本文将以"立法院"七次选举为例进行分析。

High correlation exists between an electoral system and political party system. Duverger＇s law asserts that a plurality rule election system tends to favor a two-party system, and the double ballot majority system and proportional representation tend to multi- partism. Most scholars have proved that the formation of a single-member district system and the legislature two-party system is of a high degree of correlation. What kind of impact will a mixed electoral system bring on the party system？ This paper analyzes the reform of Taiwan＇s party system since the mixed electoral system. With long-term plural constituencies, single non-transferable voting system and one-party dominance system, Taiwan began to reforms its system to a mixed electoral system since 2004. Mixed electoral system will lead to a two-party system？ This paper based on seven elections of the Congress will analyze this trend.