现金流量贴现法与实物期权法在并购定价中的应用探讨

Study on the Application of Measuring between DCF and Real Option in M&A

通过分析现金流量贴现法和实物期权定价法在计量企业并购溢价方面的应用,指出由于现金流量贴现法具有"缺乏溢价计量独立性"的不足,所以现金流量贴现法不适用于企业并购的溢价的计量。而由于实物期权定价法成功地修正了现金流量贴现法的不足,考虑到企业并购后存在的不确定性所带来的价值。虽然该方法的假设前提在现实中难以完全同时实现,但是结合其他分析方法仍可有效的对并购定价中的溢价进行计量。

This paper analyzes the application of DCF method and real option method in measuring premium and reaches the conclusion that the DCF method does not apply to the measuring of premium in M＆A, because the DCF method lacks independence of measuring premium. While the real option method emends the shortage of DCF method by considering the value of uncertainty after M＆A. Although all hypotheses cannot be met simultaneously, it can be effectively used in measuring the premium in M＆A in conjunction with other methods.