基于VAR模型的农村剩余劳动力就地转移的影响因素分析

The Research about the Influencing Factor of Shifting Local Surplus Rural Labor Based on VAR Model

目前我国农村存在大量剩余劳动力,如何妥善地解决农村剩余劳动力的就业问题是建设新农村、加快城镇化建设的关键环节。大量农村剩余劳动力外流,使我国农村建设发展缓慢,并出现了越来越多的以老人和幼儿为家庭的农村"空巢"现象,这对农村养老、子女教育产生了诸多负面影响。因此,更好的促进农村剩余劳动力就地转移是加快农村建设、解决城乡协调发展、提高农民收入的关键因素之一。本文利用VAR向量自回归模型分析了农村剩余劳动力就地转移的主要影响因素及影响力度,并提出了具有针对性的政策建议。

Nowadays, there are so many surplus labour in rural,how to solve the problem of employment about surplus labour is the eritieal link for our country to build new socialist rural villages and speed up the urbanization.Since many labour leave their own village to hunt for job,it had bad effect on their parents and children. Encouraging surplus rural labour move of on the spot has became the important link to solve problems.This paper uses VAR model to analyze the main factor about shifting local for surplus rural labour,and give some policy advices.