中国生产性服务业与现代工业关系实证研究

The Research on the Relationship between Producer Services and Modern Industry

近年来,中国工业一直占据着第二产业近85%的比例,它在国民经济的高速增长中占有特别重要的地位。而工业增长中服务业,特别是生产性服务业的贡献越来越大。本文采用VEC模型对中国生产性服务业与现代工业之间的关系进行了研究。研究结果表明,无论是从长期均衡关系来看,还是从短期波动角度看,生产性服务业中交通运输、仓储和邮政、房地产、金融业产值增长对中国现代工业都有不同程度的影响。另外,中国现代工业变化既具有较大的短期波动惯性,又具有一定的基于长期均衡关系的反向调节能力。

In recent years, Chinese industry has accounted for 85 percent in the secondary industry, which plays important role in the rapid growth of China＇s economy. While the services sector, especially the producer services sector has contributed more and more to the industry＇s growth. In the paper, we research the relationship between the produce services sector and the modem industry using VEC model. The results show either from the long-run equilibrium relationship or from the short -term fluctuations, the output growth of all the sectors consisting of the producer services sector, the transportation, storage and postal services, real estate, financial services sector has different influence on the modem industry. In addition, the growth of modem industry not only has large short-term fluctuation in inertia, but also has the ability to regulate reservedly based on long-term equilibrium relationship.