欧洲中央银行货币政策有效性实证分析

Empirical Research on the Effectiveness of the ECB Monetary Policies

本文以美国次贷危机的爆发作为分界点,对危机发生前后欧洲中央银行货币政策的有效性进行实证分析。分析结果表明,在次贷危机发生前货币政策工具能够通过货币供应量对货币政策的最终目标产生影响,中介目标对最终目标的传导是有效的,而在次贷危机发生后货币政策工具无法通过中介目标对最终目标产生影响,中介目标对最终目标的传导是失效的。

This article provides an empirical analysis on the effectiveness of the monetary policies of the ECB, which are divided into two stages （with the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis as the dividing line） ： the pre-crisis stage and the post- crisis stage. And the result shows that before this crisis happened, the monetary policy tool could have impact on the ultimate goal through money supply, and the conduction of intermediary goal to the ultimate is effective. But after this crisis happened, the monetary policy tool could not exert this effect, and the conduction is invalid.