化工园区区域定量风险评价及其应用研究

A quantitative chemical industry area risk assessment model

讨论了化工园区域定量风险评价的基本程序和评价指标,提出了定量风险计算的个人风险和社会风险计算模型。利用SAFETI软件对碳一分公司进行定量风险计算,得出碳一分公司区域的个人风险等值线图和社会风险曲线图。依据计算结果分析碳一分公司化工园区域的风险现状。

The present paper aims to introduce our work in developing the quantitative chemical industry zone risk assessment model. As is known, with the ever-increasing rate of chemical works accidents, such as fire, explosion and toxic diffusion, it has become more and more urgent to enhance the research on how to analyze such disastrous accidents and prevent them more effectively, particularly, close attention to the study of the hazards taking place in industrial zones. As a matter of fact, most risk evaluation methods concerning the safety distance between the industrial zones and the human residential areas. Such research and evaluation items have been remarkably valuable due to their high subjective factors. On the contrary, industrial area quantitative risk assessment （IAQRA） is generally regarded as an effective method for evaluating the risks of chemical industry parks. It is just for the purpose of such research of the IAQRA, this paper has introduced the procedures of IAQRA and its evaluation criteria along with the calculation model of personal and social insurance risks. To increase the reliability of the evaluation results, we have done investigations over all the accidental scenarios concerning the evaluation model and accumulate large amounts of related data from the actual process of the realistic disasters. Since the evaluation involves huge amounts of calculation in the IAQRA model, we have accomplished the whole work via computer-aided processing. In addition, we have also adopted SAFETI software developed by DNV for the risk assessment. With the help of SAFETI software, both the standards of the personal insurance situation and that of the social insurance in Tanyi company area have been established with the isopleth of personal insurance and the F-N diagram of social insurance project perfected. The standard of the personal insurance and social insurance are actually closely related to the geological environment, the current economical development level, to the land development condition as well as the humanitarian environment. In our work, we have also introduced the reference standards of personal insurance and social insurance. Based on the referential standards, we have analyzed the insurance situation in the Tanyi company area and the rang of personal insurance displayed in a GIS system. According to the isopleth of personal insurance, we have worked out the maximum acceptable value 1＆times;10-6 a-1 in the company area. Based on our research, we have developed the evaluation method of IAQRA in Tanyi company area, which may have great significance for strengthening the security and safety management of the chemical industry parks and urban land-use planning.