新千年通信发展趋势估测

Development trends of communication network in the new millennium

首先对迄今的通信过程作简单回顾 .然后详细说明 Internet如何促使数据通信业务量飞跃增长 ,超过传统电话通信 ,从而提出对未来国家通信网方向的构思 ,阐述光纤通信如何推动大容量宽带通信网的形成和无线移动通信如何促使全球个人通信的实现 .最后 ,对新千年通信发展趋势的估计提出几点意见 .

The paper begins with a brief mention of various stages of communication development in the world. Then it explains in detail how the Internet stimulates the explosive growth of data communication traffic, and raises the idea of the new data centric packet based national network in the new millennium. It also describes how the application of optical fiber technology promotes the formation of large capacity broadband network and how the application of wireless mobile system promotes the realization of the global personal communication. Finally, a few remarks are made for the communication development trends in the new millennium.