政策改革、公共开支与居民消费——基于省际面板数据的分位数回归研究

Policy Reform, Public Expenditure and Household Consumption:A Quantile Regression Study Based on Provincial Panel Data

以1998年前后教育、医疗、社会保障及住房等政策改革为分界点,利用其前后省际面板数据,采用分位数技术分析了公共开支对居民消费的影响。研究发现:教育、医疗、行政管理费以及公共投资开支在改革前后,对居民消费的影响无论从方向上还是从变动趋势上都有显著差异;教育、医疗公共开支在改革后一直是抑制居民消费,而且抑制作用明显大于改革之前;行政管理费开支在改革前一些年份抑制居民消费,在改革后却较大地促进了居民消费;公共投资支出在改革前后对居民消费一直有拉动作用,但是效果在逐步减弱,改革后比改革前波动性更大。

Taking policy reforms around the sectors of education, health care and housing around 1998 as a dividing point, this paper analyzes the impact of public expenditure on household consump- tion with provincial panel data before and after the policy reforms by adopting the technique of quan- tile regression. The results show that educational, medical and administrative expenses and public in- vestment expenditures have significantly different effects on household consumptions before and after the reforms whether from directions or changing trends. After the reforms, educational and medical expenditures are playing a role of restraining household consumptions, and this role is much obvious than before. The administrative expenses could restrain the household consumptions during some years before the reforms, while after the reforms they are promoting those consumptions to a larger degree. The public investment expenses have been playing a role of promoting household expenditures before and after the reforms, but the effects are weakening, the volatility after the reforms is much bigger than before.