中国能源消费具有收敛性的特征吗——基于STR模型的视角

Does the Energy Consumption of China Have Characteristic of the Convergence-Based on the STR Model

利用平滑转换回归(STR)模型对中国能源消费收入弹性时变性的特点进行验证,并对能源消费收入弹性进行估计,然后对估计得到的能源消费收入弹性是否具有收敛性进行检验。研究结果表明:我国能源消费收入弹性具有明显的时变性,并且能源消费收入弹性不断下降并最终收敛为-0.08。虽然从长期来看,中国的能源消费收入弹性具有不断下降的趋势并最终收敛,但是能源消费收入弹性短期仍然为正,这种现象在近十几年不会改变。因此,我国政府在增加能源供给的同时要大力进行节能减排以减缓由于经济增长而带来的能源需求压力。

The paper uses the smooth transition regression （ STR ） model to test the validation of the time-varying characteristics of the income elasticity of energy consumption. Then by analyzing the income elasticity of energy consumption, we test whether the income elasticity of energy consumption has the characteristic of the convergence. The conclusions are as follows ： the Income elasticity of energy consumption in China has a significant time-varying characteristic and the income elasticity of energy consumption is declining continuously and the final convergence is -0.08. The policy recommendations of this paper is that although in the long run The income elasticity of China＇s energy consumption has a declining trend and ultimate convergence, but the energy income elasticity of demand is still positive in the short term and This phenomenon will not change in the last ten years. So the government should try to increase the energy supply while vigorously promoting energy conservation in order to reduce energy demand due to economic growth and bring the pressure.