汇率变动、价格传导与江苏省外贸进出口——基于毕肯戴克—罗宾逊—梅勒茨条件的研究

Exchange Rate Movements,Price Pass-through and Jiangsu's Imports and Exports——The Research Based on the Bickendike-Robinson-Metzler Condition

本文以江苏省2005年7月至2010年12月的数据为样本,基于毕肯戴克—罗宾逊—梅勒茨条件重新检验了汇率变动与江苏省进出口贸易的关系。结果显示,江苏省进口、出口需求及出口供给均富有价格弹性,出口供给的价格弹性值最小;对出口需求影响最大的是国外的物价水平,其次是国外的收入水平,最小的是出口价格;地区产出能力对出口供给的影响要远大于出口价格;地区物价水平对进口的影响最大,其次是进口价格。相对而言,地区收入的影响最小,基本可以忽略不计;江苏省进出口贸易满足毕肯戴克—罗宾逊—梅勒茨条件,产出高速增长等非价格因素是人民币升值而贸易收支未受影响的主要原因。

Based on Bickendike - Robinson - Metzler condition, the paper re - examines the relationship of exchange rate and foreign trade in Jiangsu province using the data from July of 2005 to December of 2010. The results show that price of import de- mand, export demand and export supply are flexible, and export supply elasticity is minimum. The greatest impact on the export demand is seen in the foreign price level, followed by the foreign income and export prices. The impact of regional output capaci- ty on export supply is much larger than the export price. The regional price levels have the greatest impact on imports, followed by import prices, and the impact of regional income is the minimum which can be basically negligible by contrast. Import and ex- port trade in Jiangsu Province meet Bickendike - Robinson - Metzler condition. Non - price factors such as the high growing out- put are the main reason why the balance of payments was not affected by appreciation of RMB.