基于ARIMA模型的中部地区经济人口承载力研究——兼论承接沿海产业转移能力

On Economic Population Carrying Capacity Based on ARIMA Model and the Capacity of Industries Transfer Undertake

目前,沿海产业向中西部地区转移已成国家关注的重大问题,而中部地区经济承载力问题是科学承接和布局沿海产业转移的基本依据。本文利用中部六省1978-2010年的三次产业就业人数数据,建立时间序列ARIMA模型,对各省2011-2015年就业人数进行预测,以此反映中部地区未来经济人口承载规模,并与广东省三产就业人数进行对比分析,得出以下几点结论:(1)中部六省经济人口承载规模差异显著;(2)中部六省经济发展能力差异显著;(3)中部六省经济人口承载力相对较弱,阻滞了产业大规模转移;(4)中部地区经济人口承载规模尚有很大提升空间。

Nowadays, industry transfer from the coastland to the mid and western land has become an essential measure for China＇ s adjustment of industrial layout. However, the economic carrying capability of the midland is unsure. Therefore, this paper attempts to study the economic population carrying capability of the midland, and collect these provinces＇ annual data of employment population in three industries from 1978 to 2010, and then construct the ARIMA model to forecast the employment number of three industrial sectors from 2011 to 2015. According to the forecasting of the total employment, the employment in each province, and these three industrial annual growth rate, some conclusions have been made ： （ 1 ） the economic population carrying capability of the midland has significant difference; （2） the economic development capability of the midland has significant difference; （3） industry transfer of the coastland has not formed the scale trend, and （4） the economic population carrying capability of the midland has not been saturated.