摘要
人口预测是准确把握人口增长趋势与结构特征的重要途径。本研究采用马尔萨斯人口模型、逻辑斯蒂人口增长模型和灰色预测模型三种方法,以河北省滦南县1998-2010年人口为基数,对未来10年人口增长趋势进行预测分析,并比较三种预测方法的特点与适用性,以期能够丰富人口预测方法相关研究。
The Population prediction is a significant way that can grasp the trend of population growth and structural features accurately.In this study,there are three methods being used,including Malthus population model,Logistic population growth model and Gray prediction model.The 1998-2010 population of the Luan Nan County is also used as the basic data.This study is for the forecasting analysis of the next 10 years population growth trend and also for the characteristics and applicability comparison of the three models,which aims to achieve the purpose of enriching the study of population prediction methods field.
出处
《北方经贸》
2012年第11期34-36,共3页
Northern Economy and Trade
基金
辽宁省高等学校杰出青年学者成长计划项目(WJQ2011014)
关键词
人口预测方法
应用与比较
滦南县
Population prediction method
Application and comparison
Luan Nan County
