摘要
选取可持续发展这一侧面确立评价指标体系,建立GM(1,1)模型,利用未获得申博权的1995年至2002年的数据预测出若不举办世博会上海市2003年至2009年可持续发展的各项指标值,利用层次分析模型分析出可持续发展的各项指标的权值。通过对2003年到2009年每相邻2年实际可持续发展综合指数作差比较得出在2003年到2009年间上海可持续发展力度越来越强,再与预测的可持续发展综合指数进行比较,定量评估了上海世博会对上海市可持续发展的影响。
This paper selected the side of sustainable development, established evaluation index system, created GM （ 1, 1 ） model, and used the data from 1995 to 2002 to predict the value of the indicators of sustainable development from 2003 to 2009 without the World Expo Shanghai. Then it used the hierarchical model to analyze the weights of sustainable development indicators. From 2003 to 2009, the comparison of each adjacent two years for the actual composite index of sustainabie development in Shanghai showed that the sustainable development efforts were getting stronger, and then the comparison with the sustainable development index forecast led to the quantitative assessment of how the Shanghai World Expo influence sustainable development.
出处
《重庆理工大学学报（自然科学）》
CAS
2012年第10期89-96,共8页
Journal of Chongqing University of Technology：Natural Science
