摘要
[ Objective] The research aimed to analyze temporal-spatial variation characteristics of the extreme precipitation days over South China from 1961 to 2010. [ Method] Based on the daily precipitation data in meteorological stations over South China, extreme precipitation thresholds were determined according to the percentiles distribution for different stations. Temporal-spatial variation characteristics of the extreme precipitation days over South China were studied by the methods of fuzzy clustering, trend coefficient, wavelet analysis and cross spectrum analysis, etc. [ Re- suit] Four sub-regions were identified over South China. They were respectively Nanling area, west Guangxi area, Coast area and Hainan area. Occurrence seasons of the extreme precipitations in each sub-region were significantly different. Extreme precipitation clays in four sub-regions all had increase trends, and those of Nanling area and Coast area were significant. From wavelet analysis and cress spectrum analysis, there were significant periodic variation characteristics. Extreme precipitation days in each sub-region all had significant same-phase evolution trends at the peri- od of 2 -5 years, but backward time length was different. [ Conclusion] The research provided background materials for forecast and influence as- sessment of the extremely heavy precipitation over South China.
[ Objective] The research aimed to analyze temporal-spatial variation characteristics of the extreme precipitation days over South China from 1961 to 2010. [ Method] Based on the daily precipitation data in meteorological stations over South China, extreme precipitation thresholds were determined according to the percentiles distribution for different stations. Temporal-spatial variation characteristics of the extreme precipitation days over South China were studied by the methods of fuzzy clustering, trend coefficient, wavelet analysis and cross spectrum analysis, etc. [ Re- suit] Four sub-regions were identified over South China. They were respectively Nanling area, west Guangxi area, Coast area and Hainan area. Occurrence seasons of the extreme precipitations in each sub-region were significantly different. Extreme precipitation clays in four sub-regions all had increase trends, and those of Nanling area and Coast area were significant. From wavelet analysis and cress spectrum analysis, there were significant periodic variation characteristics. Extreme precipitation days in each sub-region all had significant same-phase evolution trends at the peri- od of 2 -5 years, but backward time length was different. [ Conclusion] The research provided background materials for forecast and influence as- sessment of the extremely heavy precipitation over South China.
