T639、ECMWF数值预报产品对积冰预报的释用

T639 & ECMWF Numerical Prediction on Icing Forecast

本文主要利用T639资料、ECMWF数值预报、卫星云图、天气图分析及地形分析对中低空飞行时频繁出现积冰的原因进行分析,着重对T639数值预报、欧洲中心数值预报产品所含的温度、湿度、相对湿度在航路积冰预报中的释用进行了分析。结论得出欧洲中心预报24小时、48小时预报风场、湿度场和实况吻合很好。T639数值预报风场、湿度场、温度场12小时预报效果很好,和实况吻合。二者结合利用,对积冰预报效果更好。

This article mainly uses T639 data, ECMWF numerical prediction, satellite cloud chart, analysis of weather map and terrain to analyze the causes of frequent icing in low altitude flight. It fo- cuses on the explanation and application of T639 numerical prediction, and the temperature, humidity, relative humidity in ECMWF that function in icing air route forecast. The conclusion is that in ECMWF numerical weather prediction, the 24 hour and 48 hour forecast of wind field and moisture field match well with the live situations. While the T639 numerical forecast of wind field, temperature field and moisture field in the 12 hour forecast effect well and match the live conditions. The combination of the two methods produces better effect in icing forecasts.