基于DPSIR-TOPSIS模型的湖南省土地生态安全评价

Evaluation of Land Ecological Security in Hunan Province Based on DPSIR-TOPSIS Model

基于DPSIR模型,从驱动力、压力、状态、影响、响应五方面构建湖南省土地生态安全评价指标体系,运用基于熵权的改进的TOPSIS法对2001—2010年湖南省的土地生态安全状况进行评价.结果表明:人均GDP、GDP增长率、单位耕地面积农药施用量、单位耕地面积地膜使用量、土地利用率、耕地旱涝保收率、单位耕地粮食产量、单位建设用地、二三产业增加值、农民人均纯收入、经济密度、环保治理投资占GDP比重等指标是影响湖南省土地生态安全的主要因素;湖南省土地生态安全状况整体呈上升趋势,由不安全状态提升到较不安全状态,但距安全状态仍有较大差距;从各子系统看,湖南土地生态安全的驱动力、影响和响应系统的安全状况均呈逐步上升趋势,状态系统也逐步波动上升,但压力系统的安全状况呈逐年下降趋势.

To research the evaluation of land eco- logical security in Hunan Province and to grasp its ecological security development trend are greatly helpful for promoting ＂two-oriented society＂ con- struction work and maintaining regional ecological security in Hunan. In this paper, based on the DP- SIR model, 34 indicators from the five aspects （driving force, pressure, state, impact and re- sponse） were selected to build land ecological secu- rity assessment index system of Hunan Province, then entropy weight method and improved TOPSIS method were used to evaluate the land ecological security situation of the province from 2001 to 2010. The results showed that： （1） The overall security situation of land ecological security in the province was going up from 2001 to 2010. D＋ was going down gradually. D generally showed an in- creasing trend. The close degree increased from 0.3408 in 2001 to 0.5825 in 2010, and the situa- tion of land ecological security rose from insecure state to less secure state. However, the security situation of land ecological security in the province was still not optimistic, the improvement level of land ecological security from 2001 to 2010 was lim- ited, land ecological status had not been fundamen- tally improved, which was still in a less secure state, and still had a wide gap to the secure state. （2） For the security situation of each subsystem, the driving force system, the impact system, the response system of land ecological security all showed a gradual upward trend and the state sys- tem was also fluctuated and gradually increased, but the pressure system＇s security status was on a declining trend. In the driving force system, its D＋ was becoming smaller and its trend was becom- ing to a more and more positive ideal solution, while its D- showed an generally increasing trend and deviated from the negative ideal solution grad- ually, that is to say, land ecological security situa- tion of the driving force system had improved, its close degree increased from 0. 1679 in 2001 to 0. 7792 in 2010, its land ecological security situa- tion also rose from the insecure state to the relative secure state. In the pressure system, D＋ was in- creasing, D- was decreasing, and the pressure of land ecological security was more and more seri- ous, which changed from the secure state in 2001 to the insecure state in 2010. In the state system, its close degree showed an upward trend from 2001 to 2010, it was in the state of insecure before 2006, and its security situation has improved since 2006, which was fluctuating among the less secure state, the criticality secure state and the insecure state, but on the whole, under the influence of the pressure system, the security level improving speed of state system was slow and should be im- proved. In the impact system, D＋ was decreasing year by year and tended to a secure state, D- was increasing and deviated from the insecure state step by step, land ecological security situation of impact system was getting better in general, which changed from the insecure state （0. 1972 in 2001, 0. 1867 in 2002 ） to the relative secure state （0. 7981 in 2009, 0. 7732 in 2010）. In the response system, D＋ was decreasing year by year and D- was increasing, safety situation of response system was improved significantly, from the insecure state in 2001 to the secure state in 2010.