工业发展演进的实证分析——以新疆生产建设兵团农八师工业为例

The Empirical Analysis on the Industrial Evolution——Setting the Industry of No.8 Branch of XPCC as an Example

改革开放以来,八师工业取得了长足发展。但是工业发展也带来能源紧张、环境污染等问题。如何克服工业化过程中的矛盾以实现跨越式发展?为了给工业发展路径模式选择和新型工业化战略导入提供历史实践依据,首要任务是对八师工业发展演进过程所形成的脉络进行梳理。我们以结果—结构—过程为分析框架,从宏观工业经济综合指标和微观工业企业财务指标两个层面出发,着重分析八师工业发展的规模、结构和工业企业经营状况等的演进过程。通过分析,我们得出以下结论:工业投资有效性呈下降趋势;工业化后期是假象说;主导产业部门已经更迭,大量的生产能力仍然在形成;较弱的偿债能力、固定资产利用情况没有得到改善、企业市场占有能力弱、对科技创新的投入相对较低等工业企业经营方面存在着诸多问题。

Since reforming and opening, the industry of the eighth division has made a big progress, but the industrial development also come across some problems such as the energy shortage, environmental pollution and so on. How can we overcome the problems in industrialization process to realize the great - leap - forward development？ In order to provide historical practice for the choice of the path of industrial development pattern and the strategy introduction of industrialization, the most important task is to card the industrial evolution of the eighth division. We apply the analysis framework of results - - structure - - process, and we analyze the evolution of the scale, speed, structure and operating conditions on the eighth division industrial development from macro economical index and micro financial index. Through the analysis, we can draw the following conclusions： firstly, the industrial investment effectiveness declined; secondly, the late industrialization is false; thirdly, the leading industry sectors have changed already, but the large production capacity is still in formation ; fourthly, the debt - paying ability is weak, but the situation of utilizing fixed assets has not improved yet, and the enterprise market power is weak, but the relatively investment to science and technology innovation is low.