可持续的经济大跃进?——重庆高速增长的财政解析

Is It a Sustainable Ecnomic Great Leap?——A Fiscal Analysis of Chongqing's Rapid Economic Growth

重庆的高速经济增长近年来备受瞩目,诸多文献总结归纳了重庆发展的成就和经验。本文则从财政收支角度,基于重庆市经济增长来源、财政收支结构和地方收支缺口等层面对重庆的高速经济增长进行解析,并对区县一级政府收支差额的面板数据进行分析,从而推论可能影响重庆市债务的因素。研究发现,与高速经济增长紧密相关的财政收支结构表现为土地财政收入高汲取、固定资产高投资与政府财政收支高缺口等"三高"特征;而固定资产投资与相关非固定资产支出增速、银行融资负债以及金融危机之后的中央投资刺激计划则对于重庆区县政府财政收支缺口扩大影响显著。由此所暴露的财政与治理风险更值得重视。

The rapid economic growth in Chongqing receives great attention and many studies summarize the achievements and experience of Chongqing's economic growth.Based on Chongqing's main source of economic growth,the structure of its fiscal revenue and expenditure,and its local fiscal balance,this paper studies Chongqing's economic growth from the public finance perspective and analyzes the panel data of fiscal balance of the district and county government in Chongqing.As a result of this study,this paper argues that the fiscal structures closely related to the rapid economic growth are the strength of resources' absorption in land finance,the heavy investment in fixed assets and the wide gap between the government financial revenue and expenditure.Furthermore,the growth of investment in fixed assets and non fixed assets expenditures,the bank financing of liabilities and the investment plan after the financial crisis have significant impacts on the expanding gap between government financial revenue and expenditure.Going forward,great import should be attached to Chongqing's financial and management risk exposure.