天津湿地景观格局动态变化

Dynamic changes of wetland landscape pattern in Tianjin,North China

以天津1999、2003、2007年的3期TM影像为数据源,获得天津湿地类型转移概率矩阵,然后利用CA-Markov模型模拟预测天津湿地景观格局动态变化。结果表明:天津湿地总面积先增加后减少,总面积从1999年的3120.89km2增加到2007年的3281.34km2;2015年增加到3297.43km2;从2015年到2023年减少到3285.78km2。自然湿地所占比重一直减少,从2007年的33.0%减少到2023年的30.2%,人工湿地比重则增加到69.9%。选取20个变量指标归纳为两大类建立驱动因素指标体系,对湿地景观变化的驱动力分析表明:第一主成分主要与GDP、人均GDP、全市财政收入、第二产业产值比例、总人口、非农业人口、货物周转量、客运周转量、港口吞吐量有较大正相关性,与第一产业产值比例、第三产业产值比例、耕地面积等有较大负相关性。

By using the TM images of Tianjin in 1999,2003,and 2007 as the data source to acquire the wetland transition matrixes,and with CA-Markov model,this paper simulated the dynamic changes of wetland landscape pattern in Tianjin.The total area of wetland patch was increased from 3120.89 km2 in 1999 to 3281.34 km2 in 2007,then to 3297.43 km2 in 2015,and would be decreased to 3285.78 km2 in 2023.The percentage of natural wetland would be decreased continuously from 33.0% to 30.2%,while that of constructed wetland would be increased to 69.9%.Twenty variables were selected and divided into two types for establishing a driving factors index system.The analysis of driving force for the wetland landscape changes showed that the first principal component had positive correlations with GDP,per capita GDP,total fiscal revenue,secondary industry percentage,total population,non-agricultural population,freight turnover quantity,passenger turnover quantity,and port throughput,and negative correlations with primary industry percentage,tertiary industry percentage,and cropland area.