我国城市运动会田径速度类项目成绩发展趋势及灰色预测研究

Research on Development Trend and Grey Prediction of Athletics Speed Event Performance in National City Games

以历届城运会田径速度类项目前3名运动员的平均成绩为研究对象,利用灰色系统理论中的GM(1.1)模型方法,探讨了城运会田径速度类项目的发展变化趋势。结果显示:男子110m栏和女子100m栏成绩发展状况均优于其他项目,但发展稳定性差,波动较大;从总体趋势看,男子速度类项目发展趋势各异,女子发展趋势则较为一致,但却呈现逐步下降趋势;除男子110m栏外,男子速度类项目总体波动均小于女子,且发展状况普遍优于女子;在此基础上,利用三数据建模法得出了城运会田径速度类项目的预测模型和第8届城运会预测成绩。

Providing the theoretical basis for our Olympic Glorious Strategy. Taking the top three average grades in athletics speed event of all previous National City Games as the re- search subject. This paper discusses the developing trend through using the GM （1. 1 ） of grey system theory. The result shows that the performance development status of men＇s 110m hur dling and women＇ s 100m hurdling are better than other event, but the stability of development is poor and more fluctuant. From the perspective of the overall trend, the development status of speed event in men＇s is various, while women＇s are accordance but declining. In addition to the 110m hurdling, the fluctuation of men^s speed event is less than women＇s, and the devel opment status is general better than women＇s. On this basis of it, speed event performance of track and filed in the 8th National City Games are predicted through using three-data model ing.