工程项目工期预测的未确知模型

Unascertained Model of Estimating Duration of Engineering Project

介绍了未确知有理数概念、运算、未确知期望,并提出了应用未确知有理数进行工程项目工期估算.由于工程项目管理涉及众多的工序,而各个工序的持续时间又是不确定的,因此,应用未确知有理数于工程项目网络图,可以得到的比传统的工程项目工期预测方法更满意、更合理的结果.

This paper introduced the conception and operation of unascertained rational number and unascertained expectation and put forward using unascertained rational number to estimate the duration of the engineering project. Because engineering project management involves numbers of activities and the duration of each activity are unascertained. By the adoption of unascertained rational number to construction network, the result of which are more satisfying and reasonable than traditional estimating duration of engineering project.