基于决策树的双边交易购电策略分析

Energy Procurement Strategy via Bilateral Contracts Based on Decision Tree

提出了用决策树选择交易方案的思路,制定了一个逻辑清晰的决策过程,用算例解释分析了此方法的应用,并进行了灵敏度分析。算例证明,购电交易的单级决策与多级决策问题都可用决策树法解决,靠前的决策因素更重要,各方案价格差的大小对决策结果有影响。

In regional electricity markets,when an electric power company purchases electricity through bilateral transactions among provinces,it is necessary to select one proper trading scheme from the option（s） the seller provides.This selection should be based on the comprehensive consideration of all the interdependent decision factors such as economic benefit,reliability,energy conservation policy and satisfaction of other entities in the electricity markets.In this paper,the idea of selecting a trading scheme based on decision tree is proposed for the first time,and a logical decision process is formulated.Then some numerical examples are illustrated to analyze the method application,and a set of sensitivity analysis is performed as well.It is proved that both single level decision problems and multi-level decision problems can be solved by decision trees,in which the front factors are more important than the latter factors.Price difference among the trading schemes will also influence the decision results.