新亚欧大陆桥新疆段环境灾害的灰色拓扑预测

Topological Forecast of Environmental Hazards in Xinjiang Line of New Eurasian Continental Bridge

基于灰色系统理论中拓扑预测的理论方法 ,对新亚欧大陆桥新疆段环境灾害造成的受损长度进行了分析预测 .在对受损长度时序分布特征分析的基础上 ,给定一组阈值 ξi,并按不同的时间序列分别建立 GM( 1 .1 )模型而得到模型群 .然后应用新亚欧大陆桥新疆段 38年 ( 1 959～ 1 997年 )的受损长度统计资料 ,对所建模型群进行了检验 ,并用此模型群对未来可能出现一定阈值范围内受损长度的年份进行了预测 .经检验 ,该模型群的原点误差范围为 0 .0 90～ 6.52 0 ,精度范围为 72 .658～ 97.1 34.结果表明 ,所建模型群精确度高 ,科学性较强 ,具有比较好的实用性 .

In this paper,taking Xinjiang Line of New Eurasian Continental Bridge as an object,the damaged length caused by environmental hazards in Xinjiang Line was analyzed and forecasted by using topological forecasting method of Grey Theory.On the basis of analyzing characteristics of timeseries distribution of length damaged,author determined a group of threshold values,and established GM(11) model in groups according to the timeseries.Then,GM(1.1)model in groups were examined on the basis of statistical data,and the time in which damaged length emerges in future was forecasted by using GM(1.1)model.After examination,the error range of original point and GM(11) model in groups were obtained,which are 0090～6520,72658～97134.Result showed that GM(1.1) model ingroups established in this paper is accurate,scientific and practical.