中国农产品出口持续时间及其影响因素分析

Duration of China's Agricultural Product Export and Its Impact Factor Analysis

本文采用CEPII-BACI数据库1998—2006年中国HS6分位农产品出口贸易数据,运用生存分析方法探讨中国农产品出口持续时间及其影响因素。研究发现中国农产品出口持续时间普遍较短,中位生存时间为2年,有58.55%的持续时间段在2年内消失;而且农产品贸易关系的风险函数存在明显的负时间依存性。采用离散时间生存分析cloglog随机效应模型分别从目的国特征和产品特征层面探讨农产品贸易持续时间的影响因素进行分析结果显示,无论是传统引力模型的变量还是产品层面的特征变量对农产品贸易的持续时间都有着稳健的显著影响。由此可见,单纯而盲目地为促进出口却忽视出口持续时间而制定的农业贸易政策是有缺陷的。

This paper uses the CEPII-BACI dataset that tracks Chinese HS six-digit agricultural product export from 1998 to 2006 and adopts survival analysis to study the duration of agricultural product export and the determinants.We find that the duration of agricultural product export is commonly very short with two years' median time and 58.55% of the spells have disappeared in two years.What's more,the hazard function has the property of negative duration dependence.Using discrete-time cloglog random model,we explore the determinants of the duration of agricultural product export from country-level and product-level.Our finding suggests that whether traditional gravidity model variables or product-level variables have robust remarkable influence on the duration.Hence,the agricultural trade policy,which partially and blindly promotes export and ignores the duration of trade relationship has defects.