中日韩农产品贸易影响因素及分解

The Influences Facts and Decompositions of Agricultural Trade between China,Japan and South Korea

中国、日本和韩国三个世界上最重要的农产品净进口国家之间的农产品贸易规模不断扩大,但贸易增长的基础并不牢靠,农产品问题也因此成为双边贸易关系中最敏感的话题。本文利用恒定市场份额模型从进口需求效应、出口结构效应和竞争力效应三个方面分析了中日、中韩双边农产品贸易增长的主导因素及其对双边农产品贸易增长的贡献。研究发现,进口需求效应一直是中日韩农产品贸易增长的主导力量;出口结构效应是制约中日韩农产品出口贸易增长的原因。近年来,出口竞争力效应对中国向日本和韩国农产品出口贸易增长的拉动作用明显增强。

China,Japan and South Korea are the three world's most important net imports of agricultural products.The trade scales of the three countries for agricultural products shows a growing trend over years.However,the foundation to promote the trade expand is not so solid,and agricultural products has thus become the most sensitive topics in the three countries bilateral trade relationships.In this paper,the constant market share model is employed to analyze the import demand effect,export structure effect,competitiveness effect,and their contribution to the growth of trade in agricultural products.Our results show the import demand effect is the dominant factor that promotes the trade growth in agricultural products of China,Japan and South Korea,while the export structure effect explains the cause that constrains the trade growth of the three countries.In addition,the competitiveness effect enhanced significantly in boosting the growth of agricultural products export to Japan and South Korea after China joined the world trade Organization.