美国农业补贴政策改革的趋势:2012年美国农业法案动向、诱因及其影响

The Direction of US Agricultural Subsidy Reform:Trends,Causes and Impacts of Farm Bill 2012

本文在整理美国国内相关建议的基础上,探讨2012年美国农业法案中农业补贴政策的改革方向。新的美国农业法案将取消或大幅削减直接支付,调整目标价格及目标收入补贴,突出农业保险作用。之所以发生这些调整,原因在于美国财政预算紧张、农产品价格上涨、农业风险增大以及世贸组织谈判需要等。如果上述调整实施将会引发国际农产品价格上涨,带来新的贸易争端。据此,提出我国应立足本国保证主要粮食供给、加强粮食贸易调节、完善农业补贴制度、健全农业保险制度等政策建议。

In this paper,we will illustrate and review US subsidy policy briefly.Then,we will turn to compile the proposals for Farm Bill 2012.In doing so,the directions of US subsidy policy reform may be found.The new Farm Bill will be named as Agriculture Reform,Food and Jobs Act of 2012.The direct payment may be eliminated or at least cut off a lot.The target price and target income related policies would be adjusted.The status of insurance policies will be promoted.The causalities for these adjustments are tight budget,food price soaring,risk from agricultural production,and WTO negotiations.If these adjustments are realized,international food price may go up further and new disputes in trade may come.Chinese government need to guarantee the supply by its own capacity,adjust the export and import consciously,reform the agricultural policies,and supplement the crop insurance.