基于中国航空网络的传染病大规模传播研究

Spatial spread of infectious diseases and air-transportation networks

航空网络在传染病区域性扩散中扮演着重要角色,研究航空网络结构及其对传染病区域扩散的影响对重大传染病应急防控具有重要的现实意义。本文研究了中国及全球航空网络的拓扑结构,并以中国航空网络为载体,模拟了类流感疾病在网络上的传播过程。结果显示,航空网络加快了疫情的区域性扩散,在不施加控制的情况下,很短的时间内,疫情就可以蔓延至整个网络。

Many studies have suggested that air-transportation networks contribute a lot to the spatial spread of infectious diseases. A good understanding of air-transportation networks and their effect on the dynamics of infectious diseases will be of great significance to the emergency response and preparedness during serious biological incidents. Here we studied the topology of air-transportation networks both in China and abroad, as well as the spatial spread of a hypothetical outbreak of influenza-like diseases via air-transportation networks in China.