美国的“再平衡”战略：现实评估和中国的应对

The America’s Rebalancing Strategy: Practical Appraisal and China’s Response

美国的新亚洲战略是美国自冷战结束以来国家安全战略最重要的一次重新定向。这一政策更多体现的是美国自2008年以来对自己的经济竞争力乃至整体国家实力开始不自信之后产生的一种保护性的自然反应。美国在亚太地区是一个无法回避的力量。中国是一个上升的力量。中国快速崛起的事实引发一些国家的危机感,而美国由于经济危机和巨额财政赤字而被迫做出裁减国防预算的决定,这更使得这些国家推动甚至挑战美国去证明自己在亚太还是一个主导力量。当美国走向没落的起点时,开始不自信的美国在地缘政治上的第一个本能反应是加强维护在战略性地区中的影响力,避免自己的"友国"和盟国选择追随正在崛起中的中国。一言以蔽之,"再平衡"战略最终是一场对于亚太主导权归属的"认知之争",即争夺亚太国家对于谁执亚太牛耳的观念和看法上的支持。对于美国新战略,中国需透彻理解、灵巧应对。只有真正理解美国这一战略从何而来,加强把握美国官僚政治博弈的动态和过程,中国才能更客观地评价这一战略对我们的影响,才能够更清醒也更灵巧地制定体现战略灵活精神的反应措施。

America’s new Asia policy represents the most significant redirection in the U.S. national security strategy since the end of the Cold War. This new approach, entitled 'rebalancing', reflects an instinctive response of self-defense since America’s confidence in its own economic competitiveness as well as its comprehensive national power has been hit hard by the economic crisis particularly after 2008. In the Asia-Pacific region, the U.S. is an unavoidable power and China is a rising power. China’s rise, has aroused a sense of insecurity among some Asian countries. As the U.S., struggling in a deep economic crisis and a deficit crisis, has to cut its defense spending, these countries have begun to test and challenge the U.S. by pushing it to prove that it is still a dominant force in the Asia-Pacific region. As the U.S. enters the beginning of the end of its dominant position and its confidence begins to erode, it is following its first instinct in geopolitics. It strives to enhance its influence in regions of great strategic significance in order to prevent its 'friends' and allies there from bandwagoning with a growing China. In a nutshell, the 'rebalancing' strategy ultimately is a battle of perceptions, that is, a game of competition for hearts and minds of those in the Asia-Pacific region. China needs a thorough understanding and a smart response towards this new strategy of the U.S. Unless Beijing truly understands where this strategy comes from, feels the pulse of the US’s bureaucratic politics in policy-making and objectively evaluates its impact, China will not be able to develop a smart response that embodies 'strategic flexibility'.