中国出口贸易隐含碳排放增长因素分析:基于LMDI

On the Growth Factors of CO_2 embodied in China's Export:An Analysis based on LMDI

本文构建了一个出口贸易隐含碳排放恒等式,运用LMDI分解技术,对中国1997～2007年出口贸易隐含碳排放从产业层面和贸易伙伴层面进行了分解。结果表明:出口总量的扩张是中国出口贸易隐含碳排放持续高速增长的最主要因素,排放强度的降低是抑制隐含碳排放增长最主要因素,出口结构变化对隐含碳排放的影响有限,潜力还没有发挥出来。在短期内,通过提高能源利用效率降低排放强度是中国抑制出口中隐含碳排放增长的有效途径;从长远来看,出口结构的调整升级则是可行的选择。

The paper constructs a CO2 embodied export identity and uses LMDI method to decompose CO2 embodied in China′s export in 1997~2007 at industrial and trade partners′ levels.The results show that expansion of export scale is the most important factor for the continuous carbon emissions growth,and reduction of carbon intensity is the most important factor to inhibit carbon emission′s growth.The change of export structure has limited impact on carbon emissions and their potentials have not been realized.In the short term,reduction of carbon intensity by enhancing energy efficiency is the efficient path;while in the long term,upgrading of China′s export commodities is a feasible choice.