我国消费率长期波动、持续下降成因分析

The Cause Analysis for China’s Consumption Rate Fluctuations and the Continuous Decline

近10多年来,政府依据"消费率偏低"观点及其相应的建议推出的"刺激消费、扩大内需"政策的无效性表明我国消费率问题的实质很可能不是"高低"的问题。我国消费率处于低位并不断创造历史新低是其长期波动、持续下降的结果,而这才是问题的关键所在,更值得研究和关注。对我国消费率整体结构、人均结构、效应结构及影响因子的分解分析,可以得出其波动、持续下降的不同层次的动因。据此,可以通过转变发展方式、企业技术升级、提高就业稳定性和鼓励创新等政策措施来抑制城镇和农村居民人均可支配收入占比下滑;通过教育、医疗、养老和住房体制改革等完善社会保障体系措施来抑制居民人均消费倾向下滑。

The essential of china’s consumption rate is likely not a ＂level＂ problem because the series of policy, which the government applied over the last 10 years based on the view, ＂to stimulate consumption and expand domestic demand＂, were invalid. The key of China’s consumption rate question may be its long-term decline in volatility,which may be more worthy of study and attention. The paper draws different levels of causes from the analysis of the structure of consumption rate, per capita consumption rate, effect of consumption rate and the impact factor. Then, we propose to control the percentage decline of the resident disposable income in GDP by changing the ways of development, upgrading technology, improving the stability of employment and encouraging innovation in enterprises; at the same time, to control the consumer tendency decline by reforming our social security systems such as education, medical, pension, housing and so on.